Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age
(updated July 20th., 2012)
What will it be like for us living here in the Philippines once the ice age is here and fully developed. The Ice Age cycle goes like this; the normal state for planet Earch is “Ice Age” coverage, each ice age lasts about 10,000 years while the Interglacial period or that period of time between each cycle of the ice age is where the climate is much warmer, and it lasts about 11,000 12,000 years. Therefore like clock work there is an ice age starting every 11,500 years. To answer the question of what it will be like here in the Philippines, I believe it will not change that much for us as the global temperature really only goes down about 6 degrees during an Ica age believe it or not. The ice cover reflects much of the suns heat keeping the planet cool. We are now at the end of the current interglasial period and the global thermometer is dropping fast. Guess what is next for planet earth…
The northern states of the US will be covered with ice sheets about 2 miles thick. The UK also frozen solid with ice coverage. Most of China will be covered in Glaciation. There will be mass starvation as most crops will fail. I suggest planning ahead now and store up non perishable food and lots of wood to burn for heat. Good Luck…
Little Ice Age: The Approaching Disaster
By Tom Chatham(Excerpts)– The Earth has spent much of its history moving from one ice age to another separated by short periods of warn weather. An ice age is the norm not the exception on this planet. These periods of warn weather are thought to be around 12,000 years. It seems that we may be nearing the end of one of those warm periods and a shift to a colder climate may be imminent. Even if it took decades for the climate to become unbearable to us, our food production would have ceased long before then.Even if you stored 20 years worth of food, it would eventually run out, then what? This scenario could lead to the slow starvation of billions.The problem with a global disaster, that requires evacuation from some areas, is that if there are safe zones following the disaster, how many people can that safe zone realistically support? If everyone has the same idea of moving to that zone, what will be the outcome? The first people in the zone will see it as their zone and at some point will try to limit or stop others from entering to insure their own survival. This is human nature. If you are one of the first ones in, are you prepared to fight to maintain that zone and for how long? How long do you think you will be able to fight off the rest of the world? If there is a great deal of fighting, will the resources in the safe zone survive destruction?In an environment where you have to do everything inside, at least for a large portion of the year, energy is the key to everything. With enough energy you can produce light to grow food, stay warm, provide ventilation, produce power and run machines. In some survival situations, energy may be the primary need in order to produce food and pump water.Wood is a good energy source that humans are very accustomed to using and we have a plentiful supply.
Coal is a good source of energy and we have an abundant supply of it in this country. We have used coal for over a hundred years and we know how to get the most from it. It can be dirty but will store indefinitely and is a compact source of energy.
In a long term survival situation where energy is a key to staying alive, a dependable source of power will be a necessary component to your plan. The storage of liquid fuels is possible to run a generator but could you afford a 20 year supply of fuel right now if you needed it? If so will it store for that long and how will you replace it when it is all gone? Also, generators running on liquid fuels will require periodic maintenance and replacement of components. Even with a supply of repair parts, your engine will eventually wear out requiring a replacement. You need a power system that is easy to maintain, is extremely durable and is simple enough that you can manufacture parts for if necessary.A simple, tried and tested power system is steam power. With a boiler and a steam engine you can power just about anything and secondary steam can be used for heating. Machines and generators powered by a power take-off shaft can be run by a single engine. Boilers and steam engines are much simpler in design and function than petroleum based engines making repairs and maintenance long term more realistic. With a power take-off shaft you can run several items off of one engine such as a water pump, DC generator, AC generator, metal working machines and ventilation equipment.The data from paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and lasting climate change can occur within only a few years.In all likelihood, a return to a little ice age will entail cooler summers and colder winters with a growing season 1 to 2 months shorter in many places. This is something we can adapt to and is much less catastrophic than a full fledged ice age with glaciers covering large portions of the northern hemisphere. Even though we will be able to adapt, it will still cause problems with food production in a world that continues to grow at an ever increasing rate. It could still mean shortages and starvation for some around the world as the grain producing regions in the north are able to produce much less or nothing at all in some places. Even a small shift in climate still holds the potential for dire results if we do not plan for it ahead of time.I’ve shortened this excellent article quite drastically.
See it in its entirety here:
How about 30 feet of snow over a parking lot and 50′ a little farther up the mountain….(you need to go back a few years to get accurate articles on the coming ice age as medea is now being controlled by the elite and they don’t want you to know this. Anyone presenting such an article is having their work hushed up and they are not publishing them in the scientific journals. It’s all about forcing us to agree with the coming carbon taxes. “Global Warming” is not true it actually should be called “Global Cooling”, check out the real data on this page.)
During the last ice age, the Philippines was much different than it is today. You could walk for Manila to Cebu City as it was one large land mass. You could also walk from Cebu City to Negros or Bohol. Manila bay will be gone and Cebu City and Mactan Island will merge into one continuous land mass. The reason this happens is when Ice begins to build up on land is is being taken away from the volume in the oceans which causes the ocean levels to recede by almost 400 feet 120 Meters. We are now entering a new Ice Age and I believe we will see it fully developed within 20 to 50 years. Ice Ages occur every 11,500 year in a predictable cycle, this cycle has repeated many times throughout time. Scientists and climatologists, believe once the current ice age is fully upon us the Philippines should look very much like the Ice Age map below. Many of our beach resorts will become hotels as the shores move many kilometers out away from the current shore line. Visit Ice Age Now www.iceagenow.com for more information on this.(Click any image to enlarge it.)| Here is a photo of what the Philippines looked like during the last ice age when sea levels were at least 394 feet (120 m) lower than they are today (below), exposing much more area on the continents. We are now heading into a new Ice Age so this will likely bee what things will look like soon. The first image is the last ice age map, then the current map today.Don’t forget to read the article on ice ages below at the bottom after the charts.|This is a current map of how it looks today.Below are the entire world maps for ice age and today.
Ice Age Data
Solar cycles are calming down meaning cooler weather
Sea levels are falling.
ICE AGE RELATED ARTICLES
Eminent geophysicist rejects global warming theory, says world on verge of ‘mini ice age’
Víctor Manuel Velasco, of the University of Mexico’s Institute of Geophysics, says that recent winter conditions are similar to those of the “little ice age”, and in particular the “Maunder Minimum,” a period during which sunspot activity dropped significantly. He also notes that the Earth is in a similar position today in relation to the rest of the solar system, a fact which he regards as significant for climate.
“We are talking about the period between 1645 and 1715, which is known as the Maunder Minimum, a period in which the sunspots practically disappeared from the surface of the sun, and in which our planet occupied a position similar to which it has today, with respect to the center of gravity of our [solar] system.” Velasco said in an interview published by the university.
Velasco dismissed computer models that are used to predict global warming as a result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions, noting that “today we are experiencing a scientific revolution in which on one side there are are supercomputers and on the other, human intelligence. Only human beings create knowledge and science, and those who bet on computers are making an erroneous diagnosis.”
“It will be nature that demonstrates which theory is the correct one. However, the Earth is getting colder,” he added.
Although sunspot activity has been higher in recent decades, which has correlated with higher global temperatures, it has recently shown signs of dropping. The year 2009 marked a particularly low point in the 11-year sunspot cycle, representing the “deepest solar minimum in nearly a century” according to NASA.
Velasco says that he has been studying the relationship between solar activity and climate since 2002, and “our observations led us to predict, in 2008, that the climate would begin to grow colder around 2010, and nature is beginning to demonstrate if the prediction was right or not.”
The geophysicist believes that a “mini ice age” began in 2010 which will last between 60 and 80 years, and says that “there does not exist a scientific consensus regarding the influence and responsibility of man in global warming,” according to a University of Mexico press release describing his views.
Velasco is one of many scientists who question the conclusions of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a political body which has been the primary force behind the promotion of the catastrophic global warming hypothesis. The theory is a favorite of organizations seeking to justify population control measures such as abortion, contraception, and sterilization.
The current cold snap follows last winter’s record breaking freeze. Is a pattern emerging?
Some scientists think so: There is a strong correlation between low solar activity and a phenomenon called “jet stream blocking”.
The jet streams are fast upper atmosphere air currents that have a huge impact on weather at ground level. The current change in the normal weather patterns is diverting our usual damp, warm Atlantic air away and is instead channelling freezing Arctic air across Europe.
Yet this may not be just some random event: it may have a direct causal link to the activity in the nuclear fusion engine that is our star, the Sun. Specifically, the radiation from sunspots can affect the Earth’s upper atmosphere, causing our jet stream patterns to alter course. Hence, drunk people skating down Dame street. All because of sunspots.
Prof Mike Lockwood of the department of meteorology at the University of Reading recently told The Irish Times:
“It looked last week like we had a blocking event formed …. The phenomenon is really a snaking of the jet stream. It can start to pull lower altitude, cold Russian air back in over Europe.”
Prof Lockwood has shown that historically when sunspot activity is low, the jet stream changes direction and it brings freezing weather. Ominously, he also says:
“November is a pretty good predictor of what December through February is going to be like.”
There is a 351 year record of temeratures in England, and a correlation between very cold weather and low numbers of sunspots. The sun has shown very few sunspots in the past few years.
The last time there were very few sunspots for a long time was during a period known as as Maunder Minimum, a prolonged period of very low solar activity on the Sun which lasted about half a century. This occurred in the second half of the 17th Century – a period known as the “Little Ice Age.”
Last April, Prof Lockwood told the BBC that these changes in sunspot and solar activity ”ramp up quite slowly over about a 300-year period, then drop quite quickly over about a 100-year period”.
He also said that the present decline in sunspot activity started in 1985 and we are currently about “half way back to a Maunder Minimum condition”.
This means that, if Lockwood is right, we may have to start getting used to ice and snow: the emerging pattern of cold winters could intensify and continue for another 50 or 100 years.
This article originally appeared on NewsWhip.ie
Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age
Tuesday, May 26th 2009, 3:57 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years.
Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000 years.
Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources also shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which are together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000 year period; the shape of the earth’s orbit, which changes over a period of 100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also known as the earth’s ‘wobble’, which gradually rotates the direction of the earth’s axis over a period of 26,000 years. According to the Milankovich theory of Ice Age causation, these three astronomical cycles, each of which effects the amount of solar radiation which reaches the earth, act together to produce the cycle of cold Ice Age maximums and warm interglacials.
Elements of the astronomical theory of Ice Age causation were first presented by the French mathematician Joseph Adhemar in 1842, it was developed further by the English prodigy Joseph Croll in 1875, and the theory was established in its present form by the Serbian mathematician Milutin Milankovich in the 1920s and 30s. In 1976 the prestigious journal “Science” published a landmark paper by John Imbrie, James Hays, and Nicholas Shackleton entitled “Variations in the Earth’s orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages,” which described the correlation which the trio of scientist/authors had found between the climate data obtained from ocean sediment cores and the patterns of the astronomical Milankovich cycles. Since the late 1970s, the Milankovich theory has remained the predominant theory to account for Ice Age causation among climate scientists, and hence the Milankovich theory is always described in textbooks of climatology and in encyclopaedia articles about the Ice Ages.
In their 1976 paper Imbrie, Hays, and Shackleton wrote that their own climate forecasts, which were based on sea-sediment cores and the Milankovich cycles, “… must be qualified in two ways. First, they apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends – and not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted… the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate.”
During the 1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and other scientists began promoting the theory that ‘greenhouse gasses’ such as carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human industries could lead to catastrophic global warming. Since the 1970s the theory of ‘anthropogenic global warming’ (AGW) has gradually become accepted as fact by most of the academic establishment, and their acceptance of AGW has inspired a global movement to encourage governments to make pivotal changes to prevent the worsening of AGW.
The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW theory is the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph which was presented by Al Gore in his 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth.” The ‘hockey stick’ graph shows an acute upward spike in global temperatures which began during the 1970s and continued through the winter of 2006/07. However, this warming trend was interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered the deepest snow cover to the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and the coldest temperatures since 2001. It now appears that the current Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold temperatures.
The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on evidence from only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring the evidence from the past million years — evidence which is essential for a true understanding of climatology. The data from paleoclimatology provides us with an alternative and more credible explanation for the recent global temperature spike, based on the natural cycle of Ice Age maximums and interglacials.
In 1999 the British journal “Nature” published the results of data derived from glacial ice cores collected at the Russia’s Vostok station in Antarctica during the 1990s. The Vostok ice core data includes a record of global atmospheric temperatures, atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and airborne particulates starting from 420,000 years ago and continuing through history up to our present time.
The graph of the Vostok ice core data shows that the Ice Age maximums and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic pattern, the graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat on an electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows that changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse. In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing global temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise.
The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the global temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them from loosing their ‘fizz’, which is a feature of their carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer, they release increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.
Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the changes in the earth’s temperature, we should expect to see global CO2 levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the end of the earth’s current Interglacial warm period. We should already be eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels begin to drop in response to the increased chilling of the world’s oceans.
The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels regularly rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of Ice Age minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty thousand years. Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years global temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at approximately the same levels which they are at today.
Today we are again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial, and the earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky, we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, as it always has, in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the effects of AGW.
The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the ‘big picture’ of long-term climate change. The data from paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues to distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored.
Gregory F. Fegel
Updated from Gregory F Fegel at ClimateRealists.Com
Dear ClimateRealists.Com (CO2sceptics.Com)
Thank you for posting my article from Pravda, “Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age.” When I look at the accumulated data regarding the past history of the Ice Age cycle, I see a repeating pattern of Ice Age maximums and Interglacials that have recurred with considerable regularity of timing and intensity going back more than a million years.
I see no reason to assume, based on dubious evidence such as AGW and other unknowns, like anthropogenic global cooling or changes in solar output, that anything will interrupt the Ice Age cycle as it has been performing for the past million years and more.
When I look at the data and the graphs, it appears obvious to me that the earth should be near the end of the current Interglacial and ready to begin the next Ice Age return. Maybe not in our lifetimes, but quite possibly within the next 1000 years. And I see no reason to assume that the return of the Ice Age won’t begin within our lifetimes.
No one has shown me any data that proves that the next Ice Age has been postponed. Until I see some believable ‘postponement data’, I shall assume that the Ice Age shall keep to its usual schedule.
By way of analogy, if the annual frosts normally begin in a certain region around a known date, based on the historic record for that region, why should anyone expect some unproven factor (such as AGW or solar flares) to make an untimely intervention and postpone the annual onset of the frosts?
I don’t see why my acceptance of the Ice Age cycle as we know it should inspire others to brand me as an ‘alarmist’, when most of the evidence we have for the known cycle of Ice Ages shows that our current Interglacial should indeed be near to its end. We also know that dramatic changes in climate can happen in a relatively short period of time.
It seems to me that instead of wasting so much ‘hot air’ on the dubious idea of AGW, human society would be wiser to at least develop some contingency plans for how the world’s nations will respond to the onset of the next Ice Age, an event which is both inevitable and potentially imminent according to the data.
Cheers, and “Keep on the sunny side of life!”
Additional Comments from Gregory Fegel
My goal in writing “Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age” for Pravda was to alert readers to the fact that the known pattern and timing of the Ice Age cycle is still highly relevant to any discussion of long-term or extreme climate change, and that the unsubstantiated theory of AGW does not, and should not, supersede what we know about the Ice Age cycle.
My opinion is that CO2 levels are not likely to have a major impact on global climate, that variations in solar output likely influence climate on the scale of tens to hundreds of years, and that the larger Ice Age cycle is caused by variations in insolation due to the cycles of the earth’s orbit and tilt.
I certainly cannot predict exactly when the return of the next Ice Age Glacial will begin, but it appears to me that, based on the previous pattern of Ice Age Glacials and Interglacials, we should be near the termination of the current Interglacial. I assumed that most readers would understand that I didn’t specifically state when the next Ice Age Glacial would begin because I don’t know precisely when it will begin — and neither does anyone else.
I tried to keep my Pravda article brief and focused on the issue of well-established climatology versus the very restricted view of the AGW theorists. It was not my goal to provide an alternate explanation for short term climate change outside of the context of the Ice Age cycle.
Some opponents of the AGW theory have criticized my Pravda article for not addressing the issue of variations in solar output as a plausible cause for short term climate change that explains the warming and cooling of our current era more reasonably than the theory of AGW. In hindsight, I agree with those critics, and in any future articles I write on this topic, I shall make a point of addressing that issue.
Perhaps I should have mentioned in my article that variations in solar output may play a part in climate change on the level of the Lesser Dryas; the Medieval Warm Period; the ‘Little Ice Age’; the recent late-20th century Solar Maximum, aka ‘Global Warming’; and other relatively short-term climate variations, while the variations of the earth’s orbit and tilt and resultant changes in insolation described by the Milankovitch cycles are the likely cause of the larger Ice Age cycle.
The Ice Age Cometh
By Thom Hartmann, AlterNet
Posted on February 1, 2004, Printed on March 7, 2005
Most of the good scientific articles on the coming iceage are being hushed up, it’s a policital thing, the gov’t wants the carbon Tax it’s all about money.
In order to read about what is about to happen you need to find articles written before the “Global Warming Hoax got started. This is a great article abot how quickly an Ice Age can start. I suggest reading it because it is about to become reality. This article was written in 2005 and is a very well written scientific article dealing in the predictable cycle of the Ice Ages, One is about to start now…
While global warming is being officially ignored by the political arm of the Bush administration, and Al Gore’s recent conference on the topic during one of the coldest days of recent years provided joke fodder for conservative talk show hosts, the citizens of Europe and the Pentagon are taking a new look at the greatest danger such climate change could produce for the northern hemisphere — a sudden shift into a new ice age. What they’re finding is not at all comforting.
In quick summary, if enough cold, fresh water coming from the melting polar ice caps and the melting glaciers of Greenland flows into the northern Atlantic, it will shut down the Gulf Stream, which keeps Europe and northeastern North America warm. The worst-case scenario would be a full-blown return of the last ice age — in a period as short as 2 to 3 years from its onset — and the mid-case scenario would be a period like the “little ice age” of a few centuries ago that disrupted worldwide weather patterns leading to extremely harsh winters, droughts, worldwide desertification, crop failures, and wars around the world.
Here’s how it works.
If you look at a globe, you’ll see that the latitude of much of Europe and Scandinavia is the same as that of Alaska and permafrost-locked parts of northern Canada and central Siberia. Yet Europe has a climate more similar to that of the United States than northern Canada or Siberia. Why?
It turns out that our warmth is the result of ocean currents that bring warm surface water up from the equator into northern regions that would otherwise be so cold that even in summer they’d be covered with ice. The current of greatest concern is often referred to as “The Great Conveyor Belt,” which includes what we call the Gulf Stream.
The Great Conveyor Belt, while shaped by the Coriolis effect of the Earth’s rotation, is mostly driven by the greater force created by differences in water temperatures and salinity. The North Atlantic Ocean is saltier and colder than the Pacific, the result of it being so much smaller and locked into place by the Northern and Southern American Hemispheres on the west and Europe and Africa on the east.
As a result, the warm water of the Great Conveyor Belt evaporates out of the North Atlantic leaving behind saltier waters, and the cold continental winds off the northern parts of North America cool the waters. Salty, cool waters settle to the bottom of the sea, most at a point a few hundred kilometers south of the southern tip of Greenland, producing a whirlpool of falling water that’s 5 to 10 miles across. While the whirlpool rarely breaks the surface, during certain times of year it does produce an indentation and current in the ocean that can tilt ships and be seen from space (and may be what we see on the maps of ancient mariners).
This falling column of cold, salt-laden water pours itself to the bottom of the Atlantic, where it forms an undersea river forty times larger than all the rivers on land combined, flowing south down to and around the southern tip of Africa, where it finally reaches the Pacific. Amazingly, the water is so deep and so dense (because of its cold and salinity) that it often doesn’t surface in the Pacific for as much as a thousand years after it first sank in the North Atlantic off the coast of Greenland.
The out-flowing undersea river of cold, salty water makes the level of the Atlantic slightly lower than that of the Pacific, drawing in a strong surface current of warm, fresher water from the Pacific to replace the outflow of the undersea river. This warmer, fresher water slides up through the South Atlantic, loops around North America where it’s known as the Gulf Stream, and ends up off the coast of Europe. By the time it arrives near Greenland, it has cooled off and evaporated enough water to become cold and salty and sink to the ocean floor, providing a continuous feed for that deep-sea river flowing to the Pacific.
These two flows — warm, fresher water in from the Pacific, which then grows salty and cools and sinks to form an exiting deep sea river — are known as the Great Conveyor Belt.
Amazingly, the Great Conveyor Belt is the only thing between comfortable summers and a permanent ice age for Europe and the eastern coast of North America.
Much of this science was unknown as recently as twenty years ago. Then an international group of scientists went to Greenland and used newly developed drilling and sensing equipment to drill into some of the world’s most ancient accessible glaciers. Their instruments were so sensitive that when they analyzed the ice core samples they brought up, they were able to look at individual years of snow. The results were shocking.
Prior to the last decades, it was thought that the periods between glaciations and warmer times in North America, Europe, and North Asia were gradual. We knew from the fossil record that the Great Ice Age period began a few million years ago, and during those years there were times where for hundreds or thousands of years North America, Europe, and Siberia were covered with thick sheets of ice year-round. In between these icy times, there were periods when the glaciers thawed, bare land was exposed, forests grew, and land animals (including early humans) moved into these northern regions.
Most scientists figured the transition time from icy to warm was gradual, lasting dozens to hundreds of years, and nobody was sure exactly what had caused it. (Variations in solar radiation were suspected, as were volcanic activity, along with early theories about the Great Conveyor Belt, which, until recently, was a poorly understood phenomenon.)
Looking at the ice cores, however, scientists were shocked to discover that the transitions from ice age-like weather to contemporary-type weather usually took only two or three years. Something was flipping the weather of the planet back and forth with a rapidity that was startling.
It turns out that the ice age versus temperate weather patterns weren’t part of a smooth and linear process, like a dimmer slider for an overhead light bulb. They are part of a delicately balanced teeter-totter, which can exist in one state or the other, but transits through the middle stage almost overnight. They more resemble a light switch, which is off as you gradually and slowly lift it, until it hits a mid-point threshold or “breakover point” where suddenly the state is flipped from off to on and the light comes on.
It appears that small (less that .1 percent) variations in solar energy happen in roughly 1500-year cycles. This cycle, for example, is what brought us the “Little Ice Age” that started around the year 1400 and dramatically cooled North America and Europe (we’re now in the warming phase, recovering from that). When the ice in the Arctic Ocean is frozen solid and locked up, and the glaciers on Greenland are relatively stable, this variation warms and cools the Earth in a very small way, but doesn’t affect the operation of the Great Conveyor Belt that brings moderating warm water into the North Atlantic.
In millennia past, however, before the Arctic totally froze and locked up, and before some critical threshold amount of fresh water was locked up in the Greenland and other glaciers, these 1500-year variations in solar energy didn’t just slightly warm up or cool down the weather for the land masses bracketing the North Atlantic. They flipped on and off periods of total glaciation and periods of temperate weather.
And these changes came suddenly.
For early humans living in Europe 30,000 years ago – when the cave paintings in France were produced — the weather would be pretty much like it is today for well over a thousand years, giving people a chance to build culture to the point where they could produce art and reach across large territories.
And then a particularly hard winter would hit.
The spring would come late, and summer would never seem to really arrive, with the winter snows appearing as early as September. The next winter would be brutally cold, and the next spring didn’t happen at all, with above-freezing temperatures only being reached for a few days during August and the snow never completely melting. After that, the summer never returned: for 1500 years the snow simply accumulated and accumulated, deeper and deeper, as the continent came to be covered with glaciers and humans either fled or died out. (Neanderthals, who dominated Europe until the end of these cycles, appear to have been better adapted to cold weather than Homo sapiens.)
What brought on this sudden “disappearance of summer” period was that the warm-water currents of the Great Conveyor Belt had shut down. Once the Gulf Stream was no longer flowing, it only took a year or three for the last of the residual heat held in the North Atlantic Ocean to dissipate into the air over Europe, and then there was no more warmth to moderate the northern latitudes. When the summer stopped in the north, the rains stopped around the equator: At the same time Europe was plunged into an Ice Age, the Middle East and Africa were ravaged by drought and wind-driven firestorms.
If the Great Conveyor Belt, which includes the Gulf Stream, were to stop flowing today, the result would be sudden and dramatic. Winter would set in for the eastern half of North America and all of Europe and Siberia, and never go away. Within three years, those regions would become uninhabitable and nearly two billion humans would starve, freeze to death, or have to relocate. Civilization as we know it probably couldn’t withstand the impact of such a crushing blow.
And, incredibly, the Great Conveyor Belt has hesitated a few times in the past decade. As William H. Calvin points out in one of the best books available on this topic (“A Brain For All Seasons: human evolution & abrupt climate change”): “The abrupt cooling in the last warm period shows that a flip can occur in situations much like the present one. What could possibly halt the salt-conveyor belt that brings tropical heat so much farther north and limits the formation of ice sheets? Oceanographers are busy studying present-day failures of annual flushing, which give some perspective on the catastrophic failures of the past. In the Labrador Sea, flushing failed during the 1970s, was strong again by 1990, and is now declining. In the Greenland Sea over the 1980s salt sinking declined by 80 percent. Obviously, local failures can occur without catastrophe — it’s a question of how often and how widespread the failures are — but the present state of decline is not very reassuring.”
Most scientists involved in research on this topic agree that the culprit is global warming, melting the icebergs on Greenland and the Arctic icepack and thus flushing cold, fresh water down into the Greenland Sea from the north. When a critical threshold is reached, the climate will suddenly switch to an ice age that could last minimally 700 or so years, and maximally over 100,000 years.
And when might that threshold be reached? Nobody knows — the action of the Great Conveyor Belt in defining ice ages was discovered only in the last decade. Preliminary computer models and scientists willing to speculate suggest the switch could flip as early as next year, or it may be generations from now. It may be wobbling right now, producing the extremes of weather we’ve seen in the past few years.
What’s almost certain is that if nothing is done about global warming, it will happen sooner rather than later.
This article was adapted from the new, updated edition of The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight by Thom Hartmann, due out from Random House/Three Rivers Press in March.
Our oceans, covering three fourths the world, are like great solar batteries, absorbing and storing the sun’s heat; releasing this heat into the earth’s atmosphere as warm and humid air.
With the uplift of great mountain ranges at the close of the Tertiary, these winds had to scale higher and colder elevations, thus condensing more readily into clouds; the precipitation leaving a covering of snow; the subsequent combination of larger snow fields and cloud cover increasing the planetary albedo.
The planetary albedo is a measure of a planets reflectivity, the greater this value, the greater its reflectivity; white clouds and snow producing a very high value. In the case of the earth at the close of the Tertiary, though the oceans continued to store solar energy, the global atmospheric temperatures declined; causing this whole process to accelerate; the warm and moist clouds condensing and precipitating at even lower elevations than before; the result being a accelerating positive feedback: snow dropping everywhere in the northern and southern temperate latitudes, the albedo increasing and atmospheric temperatures declining worldwide, as a global average.
These conditions marked the beginning of the Quaternary period, comprising the Pleistocene, or Glacial epoch, of about a million years, and the brief 25,000 years since the last retreat of the ice sheets which we call the Recent epoch. Within this glacial epoch, there have been more than four glaciations, with their respective and short interglacials, the last glacial period lasting more than 100,000 years, with ice and snow covering vast portions of the midwest, the Rockies, Yosemite and the east coast into all the Great Lake regions. These ice sheets were astonishingly thick. Iowa was once covered with about 2,500 feet of ice. In New York the ice sheets were so thick that they covered the tops of the Catskill mountains as they moved southward. In other places, particularly in the far north, the ice sheets must have been a mile thick.
More than metaphorically, these vast land-locked domains of ice represent the solar energy lost by the oceans, forever radiated into space; the icy debris once a warm liquid. Eventually, as the albedo remains high and atmospheric temperatures low, the oceans begin to cool. Because the oceans are no longer able to issue former amounts of warm and moist air, fewer clouds are formed, the atmosphere warms, snow and ice begin to melt; the world enters its next inter-glacial.
Berlin 12/21/01 – A record 60,000 Bavarians slept overnight in their cars along 90 miles of highway as drifts four feet high covered the autobahn! More snow expected.
In a sense, it’s a yo-yoing effect catalyzed by geological uplifting: warm oceans, increased albedo (snow, ice and cloud cover), lower atmospheric temperature, gradual decline of upper level oceanic heat, reduced oceanic evaporation, clear skies with fewer clouds, a lowering of the planetary albedo, atmospheric temperature increases, glacier and snow cover declines, albedo continues to drop and the oceans begin to warm again, plus lower level mixing getting oceanic heat, what little there is, up from the bottom. Then the whole cycle repeats itself.
Where are we in this current cycle and will there be another Ice Age?
SANTA MONICA CITY COLLEGE TELEVISION
AIRS PROGRAM ABOUT THE NEXT ICE AGE
After the worst winter in recorded history, what weathermen called a huge arctic sheet extending almost as far as the Gulf of Mexico, there is real concern that the Fifth Glacial Period has arrived!
On the Santa Monica City College television channel, a very academic program repeatedly re-run, explains the cause, arrival and symptoms of a glacial period, such as the last one which lasted over 100,000 years, and which blanketed much of North America and Northern Europe, South America and even Australia and especially New Zealand with snow and ice.
Last winter, a team of Canadian scientists, after experiencing the Blizzard of ’96, officially and publicly proclaimed that we have already entered the start of the next glaciation! Even more casual about this, were the producers of the science program on SMCCTV, who suggested that we have already entered this Fifth Glaciation in the late 1970’s and that in about ten years from the show’s time of airing (1994), we should then arrive in a full blown Ice Age. Brrr!
How quick can an Ice Age descend upon earth’s living creatures?
If you were to kill an African elephant, leaving it lying in place, its carcass would begin to decay most likely in a few weeks, and if not eaten by scavengers, putrefy in about twice that time. Thus to explain the reasonably intact non decayed remains of a woolly mammoth caught at the beginning of the Fourth Ice Age, suggests that once trapped by falling snow, presumably as winter closed in, it had remained frozen through the next summer, and all those summers to follow, until it was discovered by men, 100,000 summers later.
There is of course the possibility that the woolly mammoth had wandered too far to the north sometime after the start of the Ice Age, but considering the positive feedback nature of the Glaciation cycle in conjunction to seasonal weather cycles, a single season cold snap lasting 100,000 years is not out of the question, though today it is most unlikely with the present BTU output of humankind, along with the carbon dioxide cycle and the absence of the Milankovitch effect.
When this next Ice Age hits, perhaps within ten years, man and animals will be forced into a colossal migration away from the polar and temperate zones towards the equatorial regions, while at the same time men and animals will be driven north away from the drier and drier equatorial regions; water becoming more of a premium as it is captured as ice and snow, compressing the earth’s biosphere into two narrow bands to either side, north and south of the equator.
I don’t need to draw you this picture of the bio-tragedy about to unfold; the permanent loss of a great number of species, and total disarray of its dominant species, Homo Sapiens, inclusive of starvation and war; the Middle East and Central America becoming potential battlegrounds for hundreds and thousands of years; its survivors most likely not being the animals of Nature we now know and cherish.
What can Washington do about this? The answer is nothing, unless they know how to open up global cloud cover as though opening a venetian blind.
Is it fact or fiction? I guess it depends upon whose point of view. I know about this catastrophic potential of re-occurrence. I also saw Washington closed down trying to solve a budget impasse during one of the worst snowstorms in history, as though indeed that was of major concern, rather than the potential of complete inhabitability of all northern cities in the U.S., Canada and Europe.
Just last week, it had been announced that in many states throughout the mid-west into the Great Lakes are suffering a catastrophic loss of honey bees, between twenty five to thirty percent due to the cold winter and mites which have weakened the colonies. Farmers in Wisconsin have already felt the pinch as their fruit tree crop yields are significantly down, and everyone expects even worse. If other pollinators decline, such as ants and birds, wheat yields could become dangerously low worldwide. Already naturalists are concerned that wild berry yields will be so low that bears and other foraging animals will suffer. I can only assume that when bread prices skyrocket, along with apples, pears, peaches and plums, as well as vegetables such as squash, cucumbers, melons, only then will you be concerned, but don’t expect more time, wild animals are already feeling it.
Some critics of the potential of the return of the ice ages cite the exceptionally hot and dry conditions in various places throughout the world as evidence of the carbon dioxide cycle kicking in, or what is called the green-house effect. Be aware though, that as ice and snow remain, and the atmospheric average temperature declines, moisture normally able to make it across continental plains and plateaus on the lee side of great mountain ranges, prematurely drops out, leaving normally watered zones arid, such as the southeast states and lower mid-western states dry, giving the impression that the green-house effect is starting. Where’s this water gone? Ask the citizens living along the Klammath, Columbia and Stanislaus rivers if they’d seen any extra water last winter.
Along with aridity, comes heat since both evaporative cooling and photosynthesis decline because of the loss of plant life; photosynthesis helping to keep things cool by converting solar energy to plant substance. That’s what’s nice about fossil fuels; the storing of solar energy for millions of years, which is then released on demand by combustion.
Besides these clear and present signals of things amiss, comes brush fires, merely the results of an already scorched earth, as evident in places such as the San Bernardino Mountains and the Coastal Range of Southern California. Even though this region is hardly suffering from the low aridity conditions as other places, being that it is already a desert climate, just a modest reduction in humidity and increase in temperature, can set things off; the most recent fire in Idyllwild being started by a rifle bullet shot into dry brush. Other regions in this country are suffering the same, such as in the Southwest and the southeastern states.
Though combustion increase atmospheric CO2, the dark smoke from combustion, can block sunlight, causing a temporary reduction in global temperature; which in the short run serves as an accelerating catalyst for an already approaching glacial period and the repeating cycle of even more arid conditions and brush fires, which in the long run cannot halt the glaciation once it has started. It would seem that in the past, the advent of brush fires which must have normally appeared at the encroachment of glaciations, has otherwise not served as deterrent to them.
Perhaps the greatest irony is that the burning of the Brazilian and Indonesian rain forests, which may be our best playing card in this game of survival against the advent of a Fifth Ice Age. But this remains to be seen.
Another key factor mentioned to me by one of my associates is the continuous oceanic warming caused by the earth’s molten mantle; thus despite the continual atmospheric cooling, the oceans, still holding their temperature, keep pumping out more moisture which drops onto the land.
Since the earth’s continental crust insulates us from its molten core and mantle, permafrost can develop at the earth’s surface where it meets the atmosphere, as evidenced in arctic regions which are no further away from this boiling lava than anywhere else. Given a cold enough atmosphere and cloud cover, snow which falls here, most likely will remain.
On the lee side of hills and mountain ranges sufficiently high to draw out oceanic moisture, little snow will fall, but that which remains will have a long-term contribution to the planetary albedo.
The major problem is on the windward side towards the oceans, as the moisture laden winds climb over higher and colder ground, with snow below, it is inevitably written that these winds must drop as snow, into western Oregon and Washington, and along the Cascade Range and Siskiyo Mountains, throughout the High Sierras (Yosemite being covered again, cold in Pinecrest too and all along the edge of these great mountain ranges), through the Tehachapis, out through the Los Padres National Forest, in through the low lying Simis and Coastal Range and of course the towering San Bernardinos to the Mexican border, throughout Sonora and northern Mexico and into the Great Rocky Mountains, the latter sapping up the last remaining moisture; destroying the plains agriculture throughout the Midwest. Check recent (Jan ’05) snowfall in the Western states, especially California.
Such a scenario would be typical of places where major oceanic winds uplift over large ranges of mountains.
Eventually as the next glaciation goes into full swing, petroleum products will become out of reach because all refineries will have been cooperatively nationalized under capital emergency conditions (Washington remaining buried between two annual blizzards); most crude being converted as emergency heating fuels for northern cities and countries. Along with this, oceanic transportation will become more difficult and expensive. Under this intense and prolonged cold, pipelines from northern oil fields will suffer more breakdowns and will become more difficult to maintain, buried hundreds of feet deep by snow, which will slowly turn into crushing ice.
Since writing this, July and August have been more like June: foggy overcast. Why? Given that the warm Japanese current has now circulated offshore Southern California, a greater thermal differential exists than before between continental and marine climates, and though only different by a fraction of a degree, produces condensation (fog).
Despite the overcast holding surface heat in, a proportionally greater amount of solar heat is reflected into space, resulting in more atmospheric heat content losses and even colder temperatures.
Along with this there is an illusion of warming in the interiors caused by declining humidity and cloud cover, since the moisture has been prematurely and unduly extracted from the air currents moving inland.
Depending upon the relationship between ocean currents and continental temperatures, this can occur on a global scale along the east coast and in Europe.
Both in the short term and long run, mankind is on the precipitous edge of the next Ice Age, and without the concern, means and leadership to avert what might very well become a global catastrophe.
28 Mar 11 – (Excerpts) – Geologic records show that Ice Ages are the norm, punctuated by brief periods of warming. Now one of the most highly respected paleoclimatologists – George Kukla, 77, retired professor of paleoclimatology at Columbia University and researcher at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory – has weighed in and is warning everyone to prepare for a new Ice Age.
The “Earth has experienced an ongoing cycle of ice ages dating back millions of years. Cold, glacial periods affecting the polar to mid-latitudes persist for about 100,000 years, punctuated by briefer, warmer periods called interglacials,” says Kukla.
Kukla asserts all Ice Ages start with a period of global warming. They are the the harbingers of new Ice Ages. Actually, he explains, warming is good. Ice Ages are deadly and may even kill millions.
Can Mankind stop it? No. Just as humanity cannot affect the long term climate of the planet, neither can it stop an Ice Age from happening. The climate is primarily driven by the sun.
“I feel we’re on pretty solid ground in interpreting orbit around the sun as the primary driving force behind Ice Age glaciation,” he says. “The relationship is just too clear and consistent to allow reasonable doubt. It’s either that, or climate drives orbit, and that just doesn’t make sense.”
During a lengthy interview with Gelf Magazine, Kukla explained: “What is happening is very similar to the time 115,000 years ago, when the last glaciation started…. Believe it or not, the last glacial started with ‘global warming!'”
He knows that global warming always precedes an Ice Age. The history of that is in the ice core records repeating itself every 100,000 years or so over millions of years.
Generations ago, scientists believed Ice Ages advanced slowly taking tens of thousands of years. Now some researchers have revealed startling evidence that an Ice Age can be triggered in under 10 years.
Warming is much more preferable than cooling. Warming would actually help Mankind; cooling will do just the opposite.
Kukla and his colleagues warn that as the ice starts marching southward from the Arctic there will be “substantially lowered food production” and evidence will abound of “extreme weather anomalies” in both the northern and southern latitudes.
Global superstorms may break out. Some regions may experience anomalous cold spells while others roast from spiking temperatures never before seen by civilization.
Those things too are exactly what’s happening now. Look out what’s next an Ice Age maybe?
Not taken into Kulka’s model of an encroaching Ice Age are the facts and possible impact of the magnetic pole shift, the shifting core of the Earth, or the revelation by NASA and the ESA that the sun is going to fall into a quiet period for the next 30 to 50 years.
That exceptional solar minimum cycle is expected to start in 2014, perhaps earlier.
It seems the odds are good that the Earth will slip into an extended cooling, or so-called mini-Ice Age. Whether that becomes an extended 100,000 year full-fledged Ice Age even Kulka doesn’t know.
See entire much more comprehensive article:
Thanks to Marc Morano for this link
George Kukla’s biography (published by Canada.com):
George Kukla, micropalentologist and Special Research Scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, is a pioneer in the study of solar forcing of climate changes. He was the lead author of the scientific paper that first supported Milutin Milankovic’s theory of glacial cycles by investigating the stratigraphy in deep-sea sediment cores from the southern Indian Ocean. In the cores were clear imprints of Milankovic’s proposed cycles. In his paper he wrote, “We are certain now that changes in the Earth’s orbital geometry caused the ice ages. The evidence is so strong that other explanations must now be discarded or modified.” Prior to joining Columbia in 1971, he had published landmark studies in Czechoslovakia, where he was a member of the Czechoslovakian Academy of Sciences
Ice, rather than fire, is the big threat – Must-see video
21 Jun 2011
WeatherBell.com’s Joe Bastardi differs with mainstream media: Beware of a Mini Ice Age
Pacemaker of the Ice Ages
Look where we are today!
E-mail from a winemaker in New Zealand
Don’t know whether you’ve seen this graphic or not, I can’t remember where I first encountered it, it may even have been from your site. It tallies well with sudden cooling.
Source: Graphic based on a slide created by Andrei Illarionov, Adviser to the President of Russia. The slide was part of a PowerPoint presentation given by Illarionov in 2004 (which is also worth viewing)*
I’m a winemaker in real life, now working in irrigation, and as far as climate shifts are concerned, I can report that during the ten years up until 2007 during which I worked in the wine industry in Central Otago, we retrofitted more and more frost-fighting systems to vineyards which hadn’t needed them ten and twenty years earlier. Climatic cooling has meant that previously frost-free sites now have a frost problem during the growing season, and in other areas, there are more frosts every year, both earlier and later. The growing season is shrinking as well, with budburst occurring about a day later than the previous year with every passing season.
I’m now in Canterbury, which is about 300 miles north of Central Otago. Yesterday several farmers around Methven and as close to the coast as Ashburton reported ground frosts, and this on the fifth day of our summer.
North Canterbury, NZ
Richard sent this to me in January 2010, but I didn’t get around to opening his email until now. Wish I had posted it right then.
This graphic compares rather well with the Pacemaker of the ice ages chart in my book “Not by Fire but by Ice.” (But is much more pleasing to look at.)
– Robert Ice Age Now.com
Ice ages caused by orbital variations –
Next ice age now due
6 Aug 09 – CORVALLIS, Ore. – Researchers have largely put to rest a long debate on the underlying mechanism that has caused periodic ice ages on Earth for the past 2.5 million years – they are ultimately linked to slight shifts in solar radiation caused by predictable changes in Earth’s rotation and axis.
The above image shows how much the Earth’s orbit can vary in shape
Credit: Texas A&M University (Illustration not to scale)
In a publication released Friday in the journal Science, researchers from Oregon State University and other institutions conclude that the known wobbles in Earth’s rotation – not changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) levels – drive the ice-age cycle.
Changes in CO2 levels occurred later
“Solar radiation was the trigger that started the ice melting, that’s now pretty certain,” said Peter Clark, a professor of geosciences at OSU. “There were also changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and ocean circulation, but those happened later and amplified a process that had already begun.”
In other words, the changes are an effect, not a cause, as I’ve also
been saying all along.
“We can calculate changes in the Earth’s axis and rotation that go back 50 million years,” Clark said. “These are caused primarily by the gravitational influences of the larger planets, such as Jupiter and Saturn, which pull and tug on the Earth in slightly different ways over periods of thousands of years.”
That, in turn, can change the Earth’s axis – the way it tilts towards the sun – about two degrees over long periods of time, which changes the way sunlight strikes the planet. And those small shifts in solar radiation were all it took to cause multiple ice ages during about the past 2.5 million years on Earth, which reach their extremes every 100,000 years or so.
Earth should now be shifting toward another ice age
Sometime around now, scientists say, the Earth should be changing from a long interglacial period that has lasted the past 10,000 years and shifting back towards conditions that will ultimately lead to another ice age. But these are processes that literally move with glacial slowness, and due to greenhouse gas emissions the Earth has already warmed as much in about the past 200 years as it ordinarily might in several thousand years, Clark said.
Glacial slowness? Cores drilled into the ice by the Greenland Ice-Core Project (GRIP) show that all – all! – ice ages in the past quarter-million years began incredibly fast. The climate switched from conditions as warm as today – or even warmer – into full-blown glacial severity in less than 20 years, sometimes in as little as three years.
And look at this graph!
Changes in global ice volume during the last 500,000 years, as determined from CLIMAP isotopic measurements. Chart is from John and Katherine Imbrie’s book Ice Ages: Solving the Mystery, by permission of Enslow Publishers.
Data from J. D. Hays et al., 1976, by permission J. D. Hays. The graph shows that – even without us (we horrible humans) – the earth has warmed prior to each major beat of the ice-age cycle. The warming that occurred on our planet up until 1998 was simply a natural part of the process.
Adapted from an Oregon State University Media Release
The Coming Ice Age Robert Felix PT 1
The Coming Ice Age Robert Felix PT 2
The Coming Ice Age Robert Felix PT 3
The Coming Ice Age Robert Felix PT 4
The Coming Ice Age Robert Felix PT 5
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